In 2025, the global steel industry is undergoing dual transformations of "structural restructuring" and "value reshaping." According to the latest data from the World Steel Association, global crude steel output remained flat year-on-year, but the proportion of high-value-added special steel has risen to 16.2%, a record high.
In 2025, the global steel industry is undergoing dual transformations of "structural restructuring" and "value reshaping." According to the latest data from the World Steel Association, global crude steel output remained flat year-on-year, but the proportion of high-value-added special steel has risen to 16.2%, a record high. Driven by policy guidance, technological breakthroughs, and market demand, the industry's focus is accelerating from "scale competition" to "technological breakthrough." High-end special steel import substitution, low-carbon process upgrading, and the restructuring of international trade rules have become core topics throughout the year, forming a new industry competition pattern.
As the world's largest producer and consumer of special steel, China is leading the global special steel industry upgrading. Data from the China Iron and Steel Association shows that China's special steel output exceeded 160 million tonnes in 2024, accounting for over 15% of total crude steel output. It is expected to further increase to 180 million tonnes in 2025 and surpass 220 million tonnes by 2030, with the proportion rising to over 20%. The market scale is expanding simultaneously, currently standing at approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, and is projected to reach 2.1 trillion yuan by 2030, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of over 8.5%.
The demand structure presents distinct high-end characteristics, with strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, aerospace, and rail transit serving as core drivers. Among them, the demand for gear steel and bearing steel in the new energy vehicle sector is growing at an annual rate of over 12%, while the demand for high-hardenability alloy structural steel in wind power equipment continues to rise. This drives the proportion of high-end special steel in total consumption to steadily increase from 35% in 2023 to 50% by 2030.
For a long time, China has relied partially on imports for high-end special steel, with the import dependency rate of categories such as aerospace engine superalloys and nuclear power special stainless steel once exceeding 30%. However, as leading enterprises continue to increase R&D investment, the average R&D intensity of the industry has risen to 3.2%, with some enterprises exceeding 5%, achieving major breakthroughs in key technological fields.
Core processes such as vacuum induction melting, electroslag remelting, and clean steel smelting are constantly maturing, driving product performance to align with international advanced levels. High-end bearing steel developed by CITIC Special Steel has been successfully applied to high-speed rail bearing localization projects; superalloy materials from Baowu Special Steel have entered the supply chain of domestic large aircraft; and ultra-high-strength steel from Fushun Special Steel has met the needs of high-end equipment manufacturing. By the third quarter of 2025, China's self-sufficiency rate of high-end special steel has increased from 70% to 78%, and is expected to exceed 90% by 2030, with an import substitution space of over 300 billion yuan.
Faced with the growth potential of China's special steel market, international special steel giants are accelerating their strategic layout. Enterprises such as Japan's Daido Steel and Germany's Thyssenkrupp have entered high-end niche markets through technological cooperation and localized production, focusing on seizing high-end orders in aerospace, precision manufacturing, and other fields. Meanwhile, Chinese special steel enterprises continue to expand their share in the mid-to-high-end market by virtue of cost advantages and industrial chain synergy capabilities, forming a competitive pattern of "domestic leaders breaking through + international giants deeply cultivating."
The global steel market presents a "regionally differentiated, structurally imbalanced" feature. In the Chinese market, affected by precise capacity regulation policies on the supply side, the output of construction steel has declined month-on-month, showing an initial trend of supply contraction.
However, the peak season demand has fallen short of expectations, and the sluggish real estate industry has dragged down traditional steel demand, making high inventory a key factor restricting the market. Data from Zhuochuang Information shows that the steel price index fluctuated continuously from September to October 2025, reporting 844.18 points on October 10, overall in a "bottoming" state, with mainstream varieties such as rebar lingering at low levels.
Demand in the international market is also weak. The World Steel Association points out that global steel demand growth is sluggish, while new capacity in Asia continues to be released, further exacerbating the pressure on supply-demand balance. However, demand in niche segments such as high-end special steel and green steel has grown against the trend, becoming structural highlights of the market.
Domestic policies focus on "stable growth and structural adjustment." Five ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", forcing the withdrawal of inefficient capacity through hierarchical capacity management, while expanding the application of steel structure buildings to tap domestic demand potential. In terms of tariff policy, anti-dumping duties of 43% continue to be imposed on imported stainless steel products from the EU, the UK, etc., effectively resisting the impact of low-cost imports and protecting the domestic market.
Global liquidity easing has brought policy dividends to the industry. The Federal Reserve has launched an interest rate cut cycle, with multiple rate cuts expected within 2025. Domestic expectations of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts are rising, which is expected to reduce the financing costs of steel enterprises, ease the capital pressure on downstream infrastructure and manufacturing industries, improve the resumption willingness of electric arc furnace steel enterprises, and inject liquidity support into the market.
Global steel trade protectionism continues to escalate, with trade barriers showing a trend of "expanded scope and higher tax rates." The United States has imposed additional tariffs on China's steel and other "strategic products," with some steel tariffs rising to 25%, directly affecting China's steel export channels. Among the steel anti-dumping investigations initiated globally in 2024, 80% targeted Asian producers, and trade remedy measures have extended from single products to the entire industrial chain, seriously distorting the international market competition order.
The full implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has further raised the threshold for steel exports. Low carbon emissions have become a "hard indicator" for steel products to enter the European market, forcing export enterprises to accelerate low-carbon transformation.
Against the backdrop of hindered traditional export markets, regional trade agreements have become new growth points for steel exports. Under the RCEP framework, tariff reduction policies for steel products have been continuously implemented, and China's special steel export volume to ASEAN increased by 12.3% year-on-year, making ASEAN China's largest steel export market. Meanwhile, China's steel capacity cooperation with "Belt and Road" partner countries has deepened, with special steel processing bases in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions gradually being put into operation, effectively avoiding trade barriers and expanding overseas market space.
The export product structure has been upgraded simultaneously. The proportion of high-value-added special steel products and green low-carbon steel in exports continues to rise, gradually replacing traditional low-value-added steel and becoming the core driver of export growth.
In 2026, the global steel industry will enter a critical stage of high-quality development. Technological competition in the special steel sector will further intensify. The maturity of technologies such as vacuum smelting, intelligent manufacturing, and full-process quality control will determine the core competitiveness of enterprises, and the import substitution of high-end varieties such as superalloys and precision bearing steel will enter the final stage.
Low-carbon transformation remains a long-term main line of the industry. The proportion of electric arc furnace short-process steelmaking will accelerate, with the proportion of electric arc furnaces in China's special steel industry expected to increase from less than 10% currently to over 25% by 2030. The commercial application process of low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen metallurgy and carbon capture will accelerate. At the policy level, the construction of standard systems and upstream-downstream collaborative innovation mechanisms will continue to be strengthened, and joint R&D platforms between special steel enterprises and end users will become important carriers for technology transformation.
In terms of international trade, the pattern of coexistence of trade frictions and regional collaboration will persist. Enterprises with low-carbon advantages and high-end manufacturing capabilities will dominate international competition. It is expected that the global special steel market scale will exceed 1.4 trillion yuan in 2026, and Chinese special steel enterprises will continue to enhance their voice in the global industrial chain by virtue of technological breakthroughs and scale advantages.
