At the same time, carbon cost will officially replace traditional electricity cost as the core pricing factor of the aluminium industry, and the global aluminium industry will enter a new development stage dominated by low carbon and anchored by carbon prices.
The IAI pointed out in the report that the global aluminium industry is currently undergoing a profound structural transformation, and low carbonization has shifted from an optional direction to a rigid requirement for the industry. The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the gradual improvement of carbon markets in various countries, and the explosion of low-carbon demand in end-user sectors have jointly promoted the accelerated expansion of global low-carbon aluminium capacity.
Based on the current development status of the global aluminium industry, the IAI has made clear predictions on low-carbon aluminium capacity from 2026 to 2030, outlining a clear path for the low-carbon transformation of the global aluminium industry.
According to IAI's calculations, the global total aluminium capacity is expected to reach 120 million tons by 2026, of which low-carbon aluminium capacity will exceed 30 million tons, accounting for 25%. From a regional perspective, China will become the core supplier of global low-carbon aluminium capacity, expected to contribute about 14 million tons of low-carbon aluminium capacity, accounting for nearly 50% of the world's total low-carbon aluminium capacity. It will be mainly concentrated in regions rich in clean energy such as Xinjiang, Yunnan and Sichuan, mainly in the form of green electricity aluminium and recycled aluminium. In addition to China, Canada and Norway, relying on abundant hydropower resources, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with photovoltaic energy advantages, and Iceland relying on geothermal resources, will become important supplements to global low-carbon aluminium capacity, jointly supporting the achievement of global low-carbon aluminium capacity goals.
Looking ahead to 2030, the IAI predicts that the global total aluminium capacity will stabilize at 120 to 130 million tons, and low-carbon aluminium capacity will rise to 60 million tons, accounting for exactly 50% and achieving the goal of "half of the total". By then, the structure of global low-carbon aluminium capacity will be further optimized, of which green electricity aluminium will account for 35%, mainly produced through direct connection with renewable energy such as hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic power; recycled aluminium will account for 15%, achieving low-carbon emissions through the recycling of waste aluminium, whose carbon emissions are only 5% of primary aluminium; disruptive decarbonization technologies such as ELYSIS zero-carbon technology and inert anodes will be commercially implemented, contributing about 5% of low-carbon aluminium capacity. At the same time, about 30 million tons of high-carbon thermal power aluminium capacity worldwide will be gradually phased out, accounting for 25% of the current global total aluminium capacity, and the pace of high-carbon capacity withdrawal will further accelerate.
The core of the report emphasizes that with the continuous improvement of the global carbon governance system, carbon cost will completely change from an implicit cost to an explicit production factor, becoming the core pricing factor of the aluminium industry, and completely changing the traditional pattern of "electricity cost dominating aluminium prices" in the past. Currently, a dual-track carbon cost system has been formed globally. China's aluminium smelting industry has been officially included in the national carbon market, adding 1,500 key emitters. According to the current carbon price of 80 to 200 yuan per ton of CO₂, the carbon cost per ton of thermal power aluminium can reach 960 to 2,400 yuan, while the carbon cost per ton of green electricity aluminium is only 120 to 240 yuan, with a cost gap of 800 to 1,200 yuan per ton between the two.
In the international market, the EU CBAM has entered the official taxation stage, with the benchmark emission intensity of electrolytic aluminium set at 1.55 tons of CO₂e per ton of aluminium. According to the current EU carbon price of 80 to 100 euros per ton of CO₂, thermal power aluminium exported to the EU needs to pay an additional carbon tariff of about 800 euros per ton, while green electricity aluminium can significantly reduce carbon costs, forming a significant export competitive advantage. The IAI analyzed that the fluctuation of carbon prices will directly affect the trend of aluminium prices in the future, and the aluminium pricing model will upgrade from the traditional "supply-demand dominated" to a multi-dimensional model of "supply and demand + carbon cost + environmental premium". ESG funds will accelerate their inflow into the low-carbon aluminium sector, further promoting the expansion of low-carbon aluminium premiums.
In addition, the IAI also mentioned that the global layout of low-carbon aluminium capacity is showing a distinct characteristic of "concentrating in regions rich in clean energy".
Regions such as Xinjiang, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia in China, Quebec in Canada in North America, Norway and Iceland in Europe, and the UAE in the Middle East will become core clusters of the global low-carbon aluminium industry. At the same time, the global aluminium trade pattern will be restructured accordingly. Low-carbon aluminium will become the core target of global aluminium trade, and high-carbon aluminium will be gradually excluded from the high-end market. With the advantage of green electricity aluminium capacity, China will occupy a dominant position in the global low-carbon aluminium trade.
A relevant person in charge of the IAI said that the low-carbon transformation of the global aluminium industry has entered an accelerated period, and 2026 to 2030 will be a crucial five years for the explosion of low-carbon aluminium capacity and the full penetration of carbon costs. The association will promote global aluminium enterprises to strengthen cooperation in low-carbon technologies, improve the carbon footprint accounting system, help the global aluminium industry achieve the goal of net-zero emissions, and guide the industry to adapt to the new pricing logic dominated by carbon costs, promoting the high-quality and sustainable development of the aluminium industry.
It is reported that currently, many leading enterprises around the world, such as Rio Tinto, Norsk Hydro and Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco), are accelerating the layout of low-carbon aluminium capacity. Decarbonization technologies such as ELYSIS zero-carbon aluminium technology and aluminium plant CCUS have moved from concept to commercialization, and the global aluminium industry is gradually entering a new era of "low-carbon competition".
