1. General Overview
Global trade volume of finished stainless‑steel products fell by 4‑5% month‑on‑month in July 2026. Indonesia was the main source of supply growth; China’s exports edged down. Volume increases were concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, while Europe and America saw limited growth due to quotas and counter‑subsidy investigations. Figures are compiled based on industry estimates from Mysteel and SMM.
2. Supply‑side Performance
Indonesia
Indonesia’s stainless‑steel coil exports were estimated at 315 000 tons in July,
up 7.2% month‑on‑month, making it the world’s primary growth driver.
Semi‑finished slab exports rose by 11% month‑on‑month, largely shipped ahead of the EU’s upcoming “melt‑and‑pour” rules effective October.
Incremental volumes flowed to Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia), the Middle East and Australia. New orders for the EU cooled in late July amid the EU counter‑subsidy investigation.
China
China’s stainless‑steel exports were estimated at 420 000‑440 000 tons in July,
down 3‑6% month‑on‑month.
‑ Grade 200 series: +4% MoM, incremental volumes shipped to Southeast Asia amid fierce competition with Indonesian material.
‑ 300‑series cold‑rolled: ‑9% MoM. High provisional anti‑dumping duties in Japan plus EU quota constraints suppressed direct exports to Europe and Japan. Alternative destinations included Russia, the Middle East and Latin America.
‑ Stainless‑steel slabs: ‑18% MoM, fewer semi‑finished exports under domestic policy guidance.
Other Producers
Taiwan China mills raised ex‑works prices but faced soft end‑user demand with no meaningful export growth. POSCO Malaysia implemented maintenance, tightening regional supply without extra output.
3. Import / Demand‑side Volume Changes
Markets with volume growth
‑ Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia): total stainless‑steel imports
+9% MoM, absorbing supplies from Indonesia and China, supported by home‑appliance and new‑energy industries.
‑ Middle East: imports +6% MoM, driven by energy‑infrastructure projects.
Markets with limited or negative growth
‑ EU: stainless‑steel imports
‑8% MoM. Quotas were rapidly consumed; buyers hesitated to place long‑term orders on investigation risks.
‑ United States: import permits +6.3% MoM, backed by home‑appliance and chemical‑equipment sectors, yet growth remained moderate.
‑ South Korea: weak domestic demand, flat‑product imports ‑40.6% MoM with no contribution to volume growth.
4. Key Drivers & Risks
‑ Drivers: capacity release in Indonesia; solid real‑economy demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East; price competitiveness of Chinese grade‑200 material.
‑ Headwinds: trade barriers in EU and Japan; subdued LME nickel prices offering limited cost support.
‑ Major risk: The EU October‑1 “melt‑and‑pour” rule will close the slab‑transshipment loophole. Surplus Indonesian volumes may return to Asia and intensify regional competition. The US anti‑dumping & countervailing investigation on austenitic stainless‑steel welded pressure tubes may reshape global pipe trade.
Article 2: International Volume Change of Carbon Steel – July 2026
1. General Overview
Global carbon‑steel trade showed sharp regional divergence in July 2026: imports rose notably in North America; EU imports contracted sharply under new quotas; Asian producers diverted more volumes to overseas markets. China’s total steel exports stood at 10.121 million tons, of which carbon‑steel accounted for approximately 8.70 million tons.
2. Supply‑side Performance
China (8.70 million tons carbon‑steel exports, ‑2.3% MoM, +7.6% YoY)
‑ Cold‑rolled carbon‑steel (CRC, HS 7209):
+8.7% MoM. Forward bookings built up in July in anticipation of the expiry of UK anti‑dumping duties on 5 August. Additional volumes went to Southeast Asia and Africa.
‑ Hot‑rolled coils (HRC): ‑4.2% MoM. After the EU’s new safeguard‑quota regime took effect on 1 July, direct exports to the EU fell sharply. Cargoes were redirected to the Middle East, North Africa and Latin America.
‑ Hot‑dip galvanized (HDG): ‑6.1% MoM. Preliminary Japanese anti‑dumping findings weighed on shipments to Japan; some orders moved via Southeast‑Asian trans‑shipment.
‑ Carbon‑steel slabs / billets: ‑11% MoM, fewer semi‑finished exports from domestic mills.
Other Suppliers
‑ India: Monsoon dampened domestic construction demand. Finished carbon‑steel exports
+12% MoM. Indian HRC offer prices were lowered to capture market share in the Middle East and Africa.
‑ Russia: Carbon‑steel billet shipments to Turkey and the Middle East +5% MoM, though Black‑Sea shipping risks pushed up freight rates.
3. Import / Demand‑side Volume Changes
Markets with volume growth
‑ United States: steel import permits reached 2.294 million short tons,
+10.1% MoM. Carbon‑steel finished‑product imports +9.4% MoM, driven by restocking from manufacturing and infrastructure sectors for HRC, CRC and galvanized grades.
‑ Turkey: rebar exports +4% MoM mainly to the Middle East. Imports of slabs and scrap fell by 7% and 9% MoM respectively as buyers adopted a wait‑and‑see stance.
Markets with contraction
‑ EU: total carbon‑steel imports ‑14% MoM. Under tightened safeguard quotas, inflows from Turkey and India declined. Only pre‑existing long‑term orders were fulfilled before summer shutdowns; spot‑market incremental volume was minimal.
4. Key Drivers & Risks
‑ Drivers: resilient end‑user demand in the US; pre‑event ordering for the UK cold‑rolled market; higher export diversion from India and Russia.
‑ Headwinds: EU safeguard quotas (50% over‑quota tariff); Japanese anti‑dumping on HDG; Vietnam’s interim‑review on Chinese HRC.
‑ Major risk: The US Section 232 proposal to expand tariffs on downstream carbon‑steel fabricated products (public comments close 27 August). Australia’s sunset review on hollow structural sections (HSS). While the UK lifted anti‑dumping duties for CRC, TRQ tariff‑rate quotas remain in place and trigger a 50% tariff once exhausted.
