In the late November 2025, the global steel market, under the combined effect of policy adjustments, cross-border cooperation and regional economic differences, presents a complex pattern of "intensified policy game and significant supply-demand differentiation".
In the late November 2025, the global steel market, under the combined effect of policy adjustments, cross-border cooperation and regional economic differences, presents a complex pattern of "intensified policy game and significant supply-demand differentiation". From the deregulation of industrial supervision in the United States, to cross-border capacity cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, and to the escalation of trade protection in the Latin American market, the differences in development paths in different regions are profoundly affecting the supply chain restructuring and trade flow of the global steel industry.
On November 21 local time, the US Trump administration approved an executive order for a two-year regulatory exemption for coke ovens, becoming the focus of the international steel industry. It is reported that about 70% of US steel production relies on metallurgical coke, and the previously strict hazardous air pollutant regulations have put coke enterprises under huge compliance costs, and some facilities even face the risk of shutdown. This exemption order allows coke-making facilities related to steel production to temporarily not comply with relevant environmental protection regulations, which can not only avoid the shortage of coke supply caused by the production reduction of enterprises due to compliance pressure, thereby ensuring the stability of steel production capacity, but also reduce the operating costs of local steel enterprises.
The policy dividend quickly appeared in the capital market. The stock price of SunCoke Energy, the largest independent producer of high-quality coke in the United States, once climbed to the intraday high on the day the policy was announced, with an increase of 3.2%. Industry analysis pointed out that the US policy deregulation is an important part of its "manufacturing reshoring" strategy, which will boost US steel production in the short term, but in the long run, the temporary absence of environmental regulation may trigger disputes over industry environmental issues, and may also intensify capacity competition in the global steel market.
In terms of trade policy, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced on November 26 local time that it will extend the exemption of tariffs set up based on the Section 301 investigation on China's technology transfer and intellectual property issues to November 10, 2026. Although this decision is not directly aimed at steel products, it covers many technical fields related to the steel industry chain, which has stabilized the import and export expectations of the global steel industry chain to a certain extent and reduced the impact of trade policy changes on cross-border steel trade.
As the core region of global steel production, the Asia-Pacific region has taken frequent actions at the end of November, with cross-border cooperation and policy adjustment proceeding in parallel. On November 17, South Korea's POSCO Group and India's JSW Steel signed a letter of intent to jointly build a comprehensive steel plant with an annual output of 6 million tons in India, with a total project investment expected to exceed 5 billion US dollars. According to the agreement, POSCO will provide core smelting technical support, focusing on exporting high-end steel production processes, while JSW Steel will be responsible for localized production and operation and market channel construction, taking full advantage of India's local resources and market advantages.
The landing of this project has important strategic significance: for India, it will use POSCO's technical advantages to improve the local production capacity of special steel and adapt to the demand for high-end steel brought by the upgrading of the domestic manufacturing industry; for POSCO, it is an important measure to avoid trade barriers and expand emerging markets. In the medium and long term, this joint venture project may change the trade pattern of high-end steel in the Asia-Pacific region and intensify competition in the regional high-end steel market.
India's own steel industry also shows the dual characteristics of "policy relaxation and output growth". On November 3, the Indian government announced an import amnesty for stainless steel products that do not fully comply with the specifications of the Bureau of Indian Standards, temporarily relaxing the restrictions until December 31, so as to ease the shortage of domestic stainless steel materials and ensure the production demand of downstream home appliance, automobile and other manufacturing industries. In terms of output data, data released by the Indian Ministry of Steel on November 25 showed that India's crude steel output in October reached 13.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%; the cumulative output from January to October increased by as much as 10% year-on-year, making it the only major economy in the world to achieve large-scale expansion of steel output and capacity, and its market potential and growth momentum have attracted much attention.
In terms of trade protection, Thailand's anti-dumping measures against Chinese steel continue. On November 10, the Thai Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Subcommittee issued an announcement, making an affirmative final ruling in the second anti-dumping sunset review on cold-rolled stainless steel coils, sheets and strips originating in China, deciding to maintain the current tax rate based on the CIF price unchanged, and the tax levy measure will be implemented for another 5 years. This decision will put certain pressure on Chinese cold-rolled stainless steel enterprises exporting to the Thai market, and relevant enterprises need to develop new market space through technological upgrading and product differentiation.
Global steel output data disclosed in late November shows that the regional differentiation trend has further intensified. On November 25, the World Steel Association released data analysis showing that global crude steel output in October 2025 fell by 5.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative output from January to October reached 1.5176 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. From a regional perspective, Asia, as the core of global steel production, saw its crude steel output fall by 8.2% year-on-year in October, accounting for nearly 75% of the global total output, directly pulling down the global output growth rate, which is closely related to the capacity adjustment of major steel-producing countries such as China and Japan.
The EU market continues to be dragged down by high energy costs and strict environmental protection regulations. Crude steel output in October fell by 3.5% year-on-year to 10.8 million tons, and the cumulative output from January to October fell by 4.2% year-on-year. Some small and medium-sized steel mills have been forced to reduce production or shut down due to cost pressure. In contrast, the Middle East region's steel output has shown a contrarian growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in October, thanks to the advancement of a large number of infrastructure construction projects in the region and the competitive advantage of relatively low energy costs.
Latin America has become the "hardest-hit area" of the global steel industry. On November 14, the Latin American Iron and Steel Producers Association pointed out at its annual meeting that the Latin American steel industry will suffer a significant decline in 2025, with the annual crude steel output expected to drop by 2.5% year-on-year to 55.4 million tons, and the rolled steel output expected to drop by 3.5% year-on-year to 50 million tons. Specifically for countries, Mexico's output may drop by 7.5% year-on-year, Chile's output will plummet by 41.4% due to the closure of the Huachipato plant, and Brazil will also have a slight decline of 0.8%.
The association clearly stated that the surge in Chinese steel imports is an important reason for the impact on the local industry. Chinese steel imports account for 39.7% of Latin America's total consumption. A large number of cost-effective Chinese steel products entering the Latin American market have seriously squeezed the living space of local steel enterprises. Some Latin American countries have begun to consider protecting local industries by raising import tariffs and setting technical barriers, and regional trade frictions may further intensify in the future.
Overall, the global steel market at the end of November is in a stage of "increased policy dominance and unbalanced regional development", with trade protection and cross-border cooperation coexisting, and cost pressure and demand differences intertwined. For global steel enterprises, adapting to the policy environment of different regions and seizing the growth opportunities of emerging markets will be the key to coping with changes in the global market.
