1. Core Statistics (Apr 2026, data from China General Administration of Customs & SMM)
- Total China galvanized steel sheet exports: 1.1761 million tons
Month-on-month (MoM): +1.65% (vs 1.157 million tons in March)
Year-on-year (YoY): -8.84% (vs 1.29 million tons in April last year)
- Exports to the Philippines: 219,000 tons, accounting for 18.63% of China’s total galvanized sheet outbound shipments, ranking No.1 (surpassing South Korea).
- Top 5 export destinations (April):
- Philippines: 219,000 tons (18.63%)
- South Korea: 118,000 tons (10.00%)
- Thailand: 105,000 tons (8.93%)
- Vietnam: 94,000 tons (8.00%)
- Malaysia: 59,000 tons (5.02%)
2. Month-on-Month Comparison: The Philippines’ Sharp Volume Surge
- Philippines’ shipment volume:
March: around 152,000 tons
April: 219,000 tons → MoM surge of 44%, a net increase of 67,000 tons month over month
- South Korea (former top destination) posted a decline:
March:135,000 tons
April:118,000 tons → MoM drop of 12.6%
In short, the Philippines’ April volume growth mainly captured market share originally belonging to South Korea plus incremental orders diverted from other markets.
3. Core Drivers Behind Dramatic Import Growth in the Philippines
(1) Panghua Group’s USD 1 billion integrated galvanized steel mill project in the Philippines (news released May 28)
Location: Sarangani Province, southern Philippines
Phase 1 capacity: 2 million tons per annum for GI & GL production, scheduled for commissioning in H1 2026.
Product allocation: 70% for overseas exports and 30% for local infrastructure, home appliance manufacturing in the Philippines.
Market pull effect: Mass trial orders, pre-commissioning stock replenishment drove robust upstream exports from China in April.
(2) Peak construction & real estate season (Mar–Jun) in the Philippines
Booming commencement of residential buildings, industrial workshops, PV mounting structures and power transmission tower projects. The Philippines lacks large-scale domestic galvanized steel production capacity and relies heavily on Chinese imports.
(3) Rising trade barriers across alternative Southeast Asian markets
Vietnam intensified customs inspection and document verification starting June 1; anti-dumping probes and import quota curbs were rolled out in Thailand and Malaysia. As a result, substantial purchasing orders shifted to the Philippines with looser trade restrictions.
(4) Competitive pricing of Chinese products
China’s FOB price for galvanized steel sheets stands at USD 580–600 per MT, versus USD 650+ per MT for Japanese and South Korean offers, making Chinese material the preferred option for Philippine end-users.
4. Market Impacts on China’s Steel Export
- The Philippines has officially become China’s largest single-country buyer of galvanized steel sheets, a market structure expected to sustain for at least half a year.
- Diversified export portfolio reduces China’s over-reliance on South Korea and Vietnam, optimizing layout across Southeast Asia.
- Panghua’s investment model is validated: Chinese steelmakers can boost domestic exports via outbound greenfield plant construction overseas.
5. Key Monitoring Points for May–June
- Rainy season in the Philippines (Jun–Oct) will slow down outdoor construction, likely dragging down import demand and China’s May export volumes to the nation.
- South Korea will impose provisional anti-dumping duties up to 33.67% on China-origin galvanized sheets effective June 12, diverting more pending orders toward the Philippine market.
