China’s Steel Exports Jan–Feb 2026 & March Recovery Trend

China Steel Export Data for January–February 2026 

• Total exports: 15.591 million tons, -8.1% year-on-year
• Total imports: 0.827 million tons, -21.7% year-on-year

March Export Shift to South America & Southeast Asia

1. Background: Middle East Logistics Disruption

• Shipping risks in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz have disrupted orders to the Middle East.
• Freight and war risk insurance costs have risen sharply, causing delays and uncertainty for Middle East destinations.

2. Market Restructuring: Diversion to Emerging Markets

• Key target markets:
  • South America: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia
  • Southeast Asia: Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand
• These regions have become the main drivers of China’s steel export recovery.

3. Export Structure Optimization

• Market diversification: Reducing over-reliance on the Middle East and lowering regional risks.
• Product structure improvement:
  • Rebar & wire rod for infrastructure and construction in Southeast Asia and South America.
  • Hot rolled coil and plate for manufacturing, energy and port projects.
  • Sections and steel pipes for oil & gas and power projects.
• Trade model upgrading:
  • Direct exports supported by RCEP tariff preferences.
  • Transshipment via Southeast Asia to avoid high tariffs in certain markets.

4. Main Drivers of Recovery

• Policy impact fading: Export license procedures normalized from February.
• Domestic demand adjustment: Mills are more active in exporting during the off-season.
• Overseas restocking demand: Infrastructure peak seasons in South America and Southeast Asia support buying.
• Cost support: Higher iron ore and scrap prices underpin steel price competitiveness.

5. Outlook

• Short term: March exports are expected to rebound month-on-month.
• Medium term: Export focus will gradually shift to South America and Southeast Asia.
• Structural improvement: Higher proportion of high-value-added products will support export profitability.